2016 Articles of Interest


High Yield, High Risk: 'It Makes Sense To Take Some Off The Table'

Metamorphosis: Markets Transformed By Economic Hope

GM Inventories Highest in 8 Years, Multiple Plant Shutdowns Coming

As the Fed Turns

What It Means That The Fed Declares That It Is Done

Italy’s Day of Reckoning Is Coming

America’s Largest Pension Fund: A 7.5% Annual Return Is No Longer Realistic

Adjusting Wholesale Sales And Inventory

Italy On The Brink

This Second-Half Rebound Is Built On Sand

Drastic Implications of Persistent Slack Indications

A Big Swirling Italian Mess

Understanding The Yield Curve And Its Impact On The Dollar

B.F. Skinner And The Psychology Of The Markets


Eight Italian Banks to Fail: Renzi Seeks Scapegoat

The Black Hat Gang Is Headed For An Ambush In The Bond Markets

Action And Reaction

The Pressing Problem Nobody Dares Discuss

Trumpflation: Not Now, Maybe Later

The secular trend in interest rates remains lower; the yield bottom is still ahead of us

Reflections On Recession Are A Very Real Affair

The Lethal Market Risk For The Coming Year

Nothing Has Changed….Yet

So You're Telling Me There's A Chance

…And A Cheap Stunt

Over 94 Million Americans Are Outside the Labor Force and That’s Almost Certain to Rise

Weak But Not Getting Weaker II

Weak But Not Getting Weaker

Fed Asset Bubble in Review: Will Falling Equity Prices Trigger a Recession?

Monetary Stimulus Yields Diminished Benefits

Asset Bubbles From Stocks to Bonds to Iron Ore Threaten China


Earnings ex-Losers Look Great

The Math Thickens

Caterpillar Says Sales Woes Could Linger

The Clock Strikes ‘Rising’

GE Profit Falls as Revenue Growth Less Than Expected

IBM’s Anecdote Of The Hole

Shallow Contraction Continues; IP Falls For 13th Straight Month

Why the Economy Doesn’t Roar Anymore

How Caterpillar’s Big Bet Backfired

Dangerous, One-Sided, All-In Market

The Next Recession Looms Large

Watch That Corporate Leverage, Folks

The Frog On The Stove: Risk Creep And Financial Crises

Federal Repression System

Cash: Trash No More?

Sorry, Central Banks: Risk and Volatility Cannot be Extinguished

Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels

Bill Gross: Doubling Down

There Really Is Nothing Left to the Money Illusion

Capital Flight in Italy, Spain Intensifies: Italy Target2 Balance Hits Record Negative, Spain Close Behind

The Impact In China And Abroad Of Slowing Growth


A Realistic Decomposition Of Rates, Or At Least A Realistic Interpretation Of It

A Sudden Abundance Of Warning Signs

Not Even An OPEC Deal Will Stop Oil Going Lower, Goldman Warns

It’s Not Really About Deutsche Bank

Bank of Japan Tries Another Way to Spur Inflation

Why China Bears Are Buying Chinese Stocks

Earnings And Valuations Update; Still Nowhere Near Good

What Will Result From Sideways?

Heavy-Equipment Glut Weighs on Machine Makers

Collision Course: Motor Vehicle Production +0.5%, Motor Vehicle Sales -4.4% Year-Over-Year

Negative Rates Nail Savers

What's the Real Unemployment Rate? That's the Wrong Question

Mind The GAAP Gap

Michael Pettis Calls Surplus Trade Statements by German Finance Minister “Utter Lunacy”

More Bond Market Confusion

Investors Flee Heavily Indebted Mongolia

Hostage to a Bull Market

"Get Ya Popcorn Ready" RBC Says: "Markets Are Paralyzed With Uncertainty" As "Spook Story" Arrives

More Indications of Labor Slowing

Does It Matter If China Cleans Up Its Banks?

Global Deflation Alert—–Hanjin Bankruptcy Puts Global Supply Chain In Turmoil

Q2 Earnings Review – Hockey Stick Hopes Remain


RIP: Oil ‘Supply Glut’

Chinese Banks Step Up Bad-Loan Write-Offs

The Apotheosis Of Bubble Finance—–Folly Of The FANGs, Part 1

The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking

Cognitive Dissonance And The Bull Market

Liquidity Risk Is Very Real And Really Not That Hard To Spot And Define

Largest Oil Companies’ Debts Hit Record High

How Yield Chasers Could Be Pushing Down Volatility

 The Eurozone Is Certain To Fail, According To Stiglitz

Dividends Eat Up Bigger Slice of Company Profits

Cisco And Target Are Not Really About Cisco Or Target

Cisco Systems to lay off about 14,000 employees: CRN

BHP Billiton Reports Worst-Ever Annual Loss

When Will the Bank of Japan Own 100% of Japanese ETFs?

Through The Eye Of The Needle

Macy’s to Close About 15% of Stores, Cut Jobs

Deutsche Bank Unexpectedly Found To Have Massive Capital Gap, Larger Than Its Entire Market Cap

Trapped In Low Growth By Ineptitude

The Insurance Industry Has Been Turned Upside Down by Catastrophe Bonds

How You End up With a Fake Economy

What Do Inventories Suggest About 3rd Quarter GDP? Can Drones Cure the “Inventory Crisis”?

Anxiety Weighs on U.S. Corporate Earnings

The Trouble with Trade

How and When Does This Mess End?

It's Even Worse Than I Expected


U.S. Economy Grew at a Disappointing 1.2% in 2nd Quarter

What The FOMC Has To Keep Repeating Matters, Not What It Changes

Recent S&P 500 High Vs. 2007 Peak

Why Swap Spreads Are Suddenly Blowing Out And Why This Is Good For Treasuries

Depression And Confidence

Portuguese Banks Face Potential Big Losses

Corporate Tax Collection In Spain Goes Negative €539 Million

Implications Of The End Of Global QE And/Or NIRP

IMF Cuts 2016 Global Economic Growth Outlook After Brexit Vote

Bulls Vs. Bears: The Indicators Point To A Potential Knock Out

Globalization And Its Discontents

Fast Stocks, Slow Earnings

U.S. Exports to China Shrink, Especially for Heavy Industry

The ‘Costs’ Of Beyond The Cycle

Wholesale Zombie

Why Helicopter Money Won't Push Stocks Higher

Lacy Hunt on Negative Multiplier of Government Debt

Black Hole of Negative Rates Is Dragging Down Yields Everywhere

Bill Gross at His Best

End All The Myths; They’re Almost Done Anyway

Rearranging The Deck Shares——Central Banks Inflating Massive Debt Bubble Even Further

ECB Triggers Another Bank Shares Selloff, Tells Monte dei Paschi to Shed More Assets

Bob Janjuah Explains All That Is Wrong With The Financial System (And Remains Bearish)

Negative Revisions, Balance Sheet Rot, “Bre-lief” Rally


Italy’s Zombie Banks on Death Bed, Bail-Ins Coming?

Deja Vu: The UK's Brexit Decision May Trigger A Replay Of The 1931-1932 Global Devaluations

Australia Central Bank Worried About Deflation – Does Study, Blames Aldi

Money Market Illiquidity Further Removes A Central Myth

Thinking the Unthinkable

European Markets Remain Pressured by ‘Brexit’

Always More

Forget Brexit: According To Albert Edwards, There Is A Far Bigger Risk To The Global Economy

We're In A Recession - And You Should Be Happy About It

Economic Gauges Raise Specter of Recession

Japan: A Future of Stagnation

Retail Sales Slump Back; Auto Sales In Particular

China Review: Economic Risk And Recommendation

German 10-Year Government Bond Yields Dip Below Zero for First Time

BNEF Report Says Solar Energy, Batteries, Wind Will Dominate, Fossil Fuel Usage to Collapse

Bloomberg: 'Everything's A Buy' Really?

US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

Goldman Turns Downright Gloomy, Warns Market "Despair" Is Coming, Prepare For A Major Drawdown

Daimler to Lay Off More Than 1,200 Workers in North America

Your Portfolio Design: Assume the Fetal Position

The Labor Report Looks Much Different Without Such High Positive Variation

The Death Of The Savings-Investment Virtuous Cycle—–Why Economic Growth Is Dying

Welcome To The New Normal, Where 3x More Risk Gets You The Same Returns As Twenty Years Ago


Service Sector Growth Weakest Since 2009; Markit Economist Estimates 0.7% GDP

Moody’s downgrades Deutsche Bank’s credit rating

Balance Due: Credit-Card Debt Nears $1 Trillion as Banks Push Plastic

At Last, Someone Apologizes for Deflation

Without Recovery There Is Every Need To Examine The Worst Case

The Market Needs Some E

Another Headline Head Fake—The Consumer Can’t Save The U.S. Economy

Greece “Demands” Debt Relief, Owes Troika €11+ Billion by July

Two More Energy Companies Go Bankrupt: Linn Energy, Penn Virginia File Chapter 11

Jobs: How Good are the Jobs the Economy is Creating?

The Recession’s Economic Trauma Has Left Enduring Scars

Why Aren't We Getting Any Wealthier?

Nothing Has Changed Though Payrolls Show Up Ugly This Month

Payrolls Miss Huge: April Jobs Rose Only 160K, Below 200K Expected; Unemployment Rate At 5%

U.S. Productivity Fell 1%, Signaling Tepid Growth

Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis Deepens as Government Misses Payment

Delta Force ΔGDP = ΔPopulation + ΔProductivity


Portugal’s Financial Independence Hangs by a Thread

Once Bustling Trade Ports in Asia and Europe Lose Steam

Another Gary Cooper Rebound—–It Isn’t On The Level

Another Chinese Yuan Devaluation Is Coming

Pseudo Recovery

China debt load reaches record high as risk to economy mounts

Caterpillar Falls After Sales Plunge 26%, Earnings Miss; Outlook Slashed

Union Pacific Profit Falls on Weak Freight Demand

2015 Caused An Earnings Rift, Too

Goldman Shows the Big Problem for Banks: Revenue

New Nothingness: No Growth, No Reform, No Productivity, No Inflation

The Keynesian House Of Denial

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook

Wells Fargo Profit Drops as Energy Pain Spreads

Peak Preowned: Used Car Inventory Hits Record Level; Congratulations, You Are Qualified

Banks Face Massive New Headache on Oil Loans

Italy pushes for bank rescue fund

We're Trapped In A Low Growth Economy And There's No Way Out

Triffin's Paradox Revisited: Crunch-Time for the U.S. Dollar and the Global Economy

Payrolls As Statistics

The Pew Charitable Trusts: Household Expenditures and Income


Deflation: The New Normal?

Durable Goods May Not Actually Show Recession, And That Is The Worst Case

Europe is now drowning under the cost of welfare bills

The 4 Horsemen Of The Global Deleveraging Apocalypse, Part II: The Debt Time Bomb

The 4 Horsemen Of The Global Deleveraging Apocalypse, Part I: China's Renminbi Devaluation

Brazil’s Boom-Era Missteps Now Haunt Economy

The Stock Market Remains Obscenely Overvalued

"Free" Trade, Jobs and Income Inequality: It's Not As Easy As We Might Think

Buyback Blackout Period Starts Monday: Is This The Catalyst That Ends The S&P Rally?

Harsh Lessons From Historical Policy Divergences

India's Ugly Bad-Loans Situation Is About to Get Even Worse

Still Slowing In China

Subprime Flashback: Early Defaults Are a Warning Sign for Auto Sales

U.S. Import Prices Fell 0.3% in February

Forget Grexit Or Brexit; Italexit Is Next

China Resorts to “Stealth Interventions” to Prop Up Yuan and Stock Market

A Profitless Recession

Europe Faces Pension Predicament

A Modest Proposal: Gift The BLS To The Democratic National Committee Or Sell It To CNBC

Eurozone Deflationary Pressures Intensify; France PMI Back in Contraction

Fresh recession will cause Eurozone collapse, warns Swiss bank

As China’s Economy Slows, the World’s Factory Takes a Break

“Eurozone Will Collapse” Says Former Head of Bank of England: “It’s Real Hell”


Q4 GDP Revisions Leave Nothing Revised

Rush of Corporate Bonds Inflames Worries About China’s Debt

The Great Recession Scare of 2016

The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality

Teamster retirees fight massive pension cuts at Kansas City town hall, warn others at risk

The Eurozone: Still Hasn't Recovered

Where Deflation Comes From

Macro And Credit - The Vasa Ship

It Was Never About Oil Part 2; It Was Always Leverage and Volatility

It Was Never About Oil

Creditors must brace for a tsunami of losses in a world awash with debt

IEA Warns Oil Prices Could Fall Further as Oversupply Worsens

Big Companies Pull Back After Rough Quarter

Robust Job Growth Doesn’t Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why

Explaining Today's Collapse In US Worker Productivity

BP’s Earnings Plunge Amid Oil-Price Slide

What might the next US recession look like?

South Korean Exports Fall at Fastest Pace Since Financial Crisis


For Mining Chiefs, Doomsday Scenarios Could Become Reality

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Tumbled 5.1% in December

Italy, EU Strike Deal to Address Bad Loans

"Temporary" Capital Controls Coming to China?

700 Days In No Man’s Land——Why They Can’t Keep It Up

What Is Wrong With Markets? The Former Chief Economist Of The Bank Of International Settlements Knows...

Run on Italy's Third Largest Bank? Capital Controls or Bail-Ins Next? Why Take Chances?

Italian Banks Hammered; Bad Loans Hit €201 Billion; End of Draghi PUT; Get Out Now!

Welcome to the Crisis Economy, Where Tumult Reigns

BHP Billiton to Take Big Charge on U.S. Onshore Energy Assets

'Steel industry is in hell' and the pain shows no sign of letting up

Brazil’s Vale Will Draw $3 Billion From Credit Lines

Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns

RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears

Another 2% Yuan Devaluation Coming Up? What Are the Risks? Explaining Chinese Capital Flight

A $500 Car Repair Bill Would Send Most Americans Scrambling

Safe On The Sidelines—475 Days And Still Counting

China Factories Haven’t Fought Off Overcapacity, Weak Demand